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  "Title": "Calculate the Revealed Aggregator of Probability Predictions",
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  "Authors@R": "c(person(given = \"Ville\",\nfamily = \"Satopää\",\nemail = \"ville.satopaa@gmail.com\",\nrole = c(\"aut\", \"cre\", \"cph\")))",
  "Description": "Forecasters predicting the chances of a future event may\ndisagree due to differing evidence or noise. To harness the\ncollective evidence of the crowd, Ville Satopää (2021)\n\"Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions\"\n<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3769945>\nproposes a Bayesian aggregator that is regularized by analyzing\nthe forecasters' disagreement and ascribing over-dispersion to\nnoise. This aggregator requires no user intervention and can be\ncomputed efficiently even for a large numbers of predictions.\nThe author evaluates the aggregator on subjective probability\npredictions collected during a four-year forecasting tournament\nsponsored by the US intelligence community. The aggregator\nimproves the accuracy of simple averaging by around 20% and\nother state-of-the-art aggregators by 10-25%. The advantage\nstems almost exclusively from improved calibration. This\naggregator -- know as \"the revealed aggregator\" -- inputs a)\nforecasters' probability predictions (p) of a future binary\nevent and b) the forecasters' common prior (p0) of the future\nevent. In this R-package, the function\nsample_aggregator(p,p0,...) allows the user to calculate the\nrevealed aggregator. Its use is illustrated with a simple\nexample.",
  "License": "GPL-2",
  "Copyright": "(c) Ville Satopaa",
  "Encoding": "UTF-8",
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