{ "_id": "6a1073a5acfb0bcc41cac279", "Package": "braggR", "Type": "Package", "Title": "Calculate the Revealed Aggregator of Probability Predictions", "Version": "0.1.1", "Authors@R": "c(person(given = \"Ville\",\nfamily = \"Satopää\",\nemail = \"ville.satopaa@gmail.com\",\nrole = c(\"aut\", \"cre\", \"cph\")))", "Description": "Forecasters predicting the chances of a future event may\ndisagree due to differing evidence or noise. To harness the\ncollective evidence of the crowd, Ville Satopää (2021)\n\"Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions\"\n\nproposes a Bayesian aggregator that is regularized by analyzing\nthe forecasters' disagreement and ascribing over-dispersion to\nnoise. This aggregator requires no user intervention and can be\ncomputed efficiently even for a large numbers of predictions.\nThe author evaluates the aggregator on subjective probability\npredictions collected during a four-year forecasting tournament\nsponsored by the US intelligence community. The aggregator\nimproves the accuracy of simple averaging by around 20% and\nother state-of-the-art aggregators by 10-25%. The advantage\nstems almost exclusively from improved calibration. This\naggregator -- know as \"the revealed aggregator\" -- inputs a)\nforecasters' probability predictions (p) of a future binary\nevent and b) the forecasters' common prior (p0) of the future\nevent. In this R-package, the function\nsample_aggregator(p,p0,...) allows the user to calculate the\nrevealed aggregator. Its use is illustrated with a simple\nexample.", "License": "GPL-2", "Copyright": "(c) Ville Satopaa", "Encoding": "UTF-8", "RoxygenNote": "7.1.1", "Config/testthat/edition": "3", "NeedsCompilation": "yes", "Packaged": { "Date": "2026-05-07 05:51:39 UTC", "User": "root" }, "Author": "Ville Satopää [aut, cre, cph]", "Maintainer": "Ville Satopää ", "Repository": "https://satopaa.r-universe.dev", "Date/Publication": "2021-05-29 12:10:02 UTC", "RemoteUrl": "https://github.com/cran/braggR", "RemoteRef": "HEAD", "RemoteSha": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "MD5sum": "903cb6019a6f9edb78b81dc3b6c30c7c", "_user": "satopaa", "_type": "src", "_file": "braggR_0.1.1.tar.gz", "_fileid": "1812f67ea6f625dce3bc85bf3f2388a1c51968c8dbbc9bbffe33cbea86684252", "_filesize": 142056, "_sha256": "1812f67ea6f625dce3bc85bf3f2388a1c51968c8dbbc9bbffe33cbea86684252", "_created": "2026-05-07T05:51:39.000Z", "_published": "2026-05-22T15:17:57.170Z", "_distro": "noble", "_jobs": [ { "job": 77408950367, "time": 115, "config": "linux-devel-arm64", "r": "4.7.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847882700" }, { "job": 77408949719, "time": 114, "config": "linux-devel-x86_64", "r": "4.7.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847883724" }, { "job": 77408950694, "time": 128, "config": "linux-release-arm64", "r": "4.6.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847885081" }, { "job": 77408950332, "time": 134, "config": "linux-release-x86_64", "r": "4.6.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847886114" }, { "job": 77408950630, "time": 101, "config": "macos-oldrel-arm64", "r": "4.5.3", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847880330" }, { "job": 77408950518, "time": 257, "config": "macos-oldrel-x86_64", "r": "4.5.3", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847908062" }, { "job": 77408950790, "time": 82, "config": "macos-release-arm64", "r": "4.6.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847876796" }, { "job": 77408950230, "time": 289, "config": "macos-release-x86_64", "r": "4.6.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847914033" }, { "job": 77408949470, "time": 146, "config": "source", "r": "4.6.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847861493" }, { "job": 77408949563, "time": 93, "config": "wasm-release", "r": "4.6.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "7164026879" }, { "job": 77408950257, "time": 84, "config": "windows-devel", "r": "4.7.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847877166" }, { "job": 77408950305, "time": 181, "config": "windows-oldrel", "r": "4.5.3", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847894592" }, { "job": 77408950153, "time": 121, "config": "windows-release", "r": "4.6.0", "check": "OK", "artifact": "6847883772" } ], "_buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260", "_status": "success", "_host": "GitHub-Actions", "_upstream": "https://github.com/cran/braggR", "_commit": { "id": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "author": "Ville Satopää ", "committer": "cran-robot ", "message": "version 0.1.1\n", "time": 1622290202 }, "_maintainer": { "name": "Ville Satopää", "email": "ville.satopaa@gmail.com", "login": "satopaa", "uuid": 2185253 }, "_registered": true, "_dependencies": [ { "package": "Rcpp", "role": "LinkingTo" }, { "package": "Rcpp", "role": "Imports" }, { "package": "testthat", "version": ">= 3.0.0", "role": "Suggests" } ], "_owner": "cran", "_selfowned": true, "_usedby": 0, "_updates": [], "_tags": [], "_stars": 1, "_contributors": [ { "user": "satopaa", "count": 2, "uuid": 2185253 } ], "_userbio": { "uuid": 2185253, "type": "user", "name": "Ville Satopaa" }, "_downloads": { "count": 202, "source": "https://cranlogs.r-pkg.org/downloads/total/last-month/braggR" }, "_searchresults": 3, "_topics": [ "cpp" ], "_rbuild": "4.6.0", "_assets": [ "extra/braggR.html", "extra/citation.cff", "extra/citation.html", "extra/citation.json", "extra/citation.txt", "extra/contents.json", "extra/readme.html", "extra/readme.md", "manual.pdf" ], "_realowner": "satopaa", "_cranurl": false, "_releases": [ { "version": "0.1.0", "date": "2021-04-23" }, { "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2021-05-29" } ], "_exports": [ "sample_aggregator" ], "_help": [ { "page": "sample_aggregator", "title": "Revealed Aggregator", "topics": [ "sample_aggregator" ] } ], "_readme": "https://github.com/cran/braggR/raw/HEAD/README.md", "_rundeps": [ "Rcpp" ], "_sysdeps": [ { "shlib": "libstdc++", "package": "libstdc++6", "source": "gcc", "version": "14.2.0-4ubuntu2~24.04.1", "name": "c++", "homepage": "http://gcc.gnu.org/", "description": "GNU Standard C++ Library v3" } ], "_score": 1.6989700043360187, "_indexed": true, "_nocasepkg": "braggr", "_universes": [ "satopaa" ], "_binaries": [ { "r": "4.7.0", "os": "linux", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:53:38.000Z", "distro": "noble", "arch": "aarch64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "1d93e5b71f1c8897ce58fbd2ef972b8cfa0269adbca3d92374743f09de57e601", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.7.0", "os": "linux", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:53:40.000Z", "distro": "noble", "arch": "x86_64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "8847c469a1bd36c96948a4be8f2ce995a5304a56813e505a7528a2b2e7fc2924", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.6.0", "os": "linux", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:53:50.000Z", "distro": "noble", "arch": "aarch64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "aedd45ed1e1647a5b20f9901b41cbc9bfbe61d850df04913fde6410f1774af61", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.6.0", "os": "linux", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:53:53.000Z", "distro": "noble", "arch": "x86_64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "99361252c9ff8a9b79f2dcc397cfde0e424c4614c61da3fb387c607a0e698a08", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.5.3", "os": "mac", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:53:25.000Z", "arch": "aarch64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "a37c48a358405ec5c115e4c5dce0cf8c83e211b1f7ebd15af14b3f39be001561", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.5.3", "os": "mac", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:55:09.000Z", "arch": "x86_64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "dd61c21f8d82c10a0cb9eb3d6706369dbbac4eb5ee29012492e5213b9373d494", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.6.0", "os": "mac", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:53:07.000Z", "arch": "aarch64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "e5e2263e76c20e1ba1d2e565241a7c477554eae6498eb7717265c37d82e7cd5f", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.6.0", "os": "mac", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:55:56.000Z", "arch": "x86_64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "f52d9d8c6109a9ab55417c4df272abe20695e982c01dfe11542c6662ad6c0e55", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.7.0", "os": "win", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:52:45.000Z", "arch": "x86_64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "614e664632ecdc244af338e57cff4f476a6e95d68b975086692b8771ff63ef64", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.5.3", "os": "win", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:54:17.000Z", "arch": "x86_64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "d3cdf6be24840093e95b0b9843a504d419aaca4b80670d36483eff57ab4b4f57", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.6.0", "os": "win", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-07T05:53:02.000Z", "arch": "x86_64", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "e49095d6ea2f173326d1d0c3fceaa9797823fe584e9ecc31acc42e1c9f03c2d4", "status": "success", "check": "OK", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" }, { "r": "4.6.0", "os": "wasm", "version": "0.1.1", "date": "2026-05-22T15:17:38.000Z", "arch": "emscripten", "commit": "a3de813c9e20ef2b9a6de730427570d5e72c8f74", "fileid": "618dc56fa791408c878bf93c759996b986e2a4b970341f7d7f26eece2db10137", "status": "success", "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/satopaa/actions/runs/25478313260" } ] }